كالشي وبوليماركت وسي إم إي يتفقون: الاحتياطي الفيدرالي على وشك خفض الفائدة

في اليوم السابق للاجتماع المهم للاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي، تشير توقعات الأسواق والعقود المستقبلية بقوة إلى تخفيض محتمل في أسعار الفائدة. يُتوقع أن يعطي هذا القرار دفعة قوية لكل من سوق البيتكوين والأسهم الأمريكية، خاصة إذا استمر البنك المركزي في خفض الأسعار خلال عام ٢٠٢٥.

أسواق المال تتوقع خفضاً في سعر الفائدة

يسيطر تفاؤل واضح على أجواء السوق يوم الثلاثاء، حيث يُنظر إلى احتمالية خفض الفائدة على أنها الصدمة الإيجابية التي ينتظرها الجميع. من المتوقع أن يؤدي ضخ سيولة جديدة إلى دعم كل من أصول العملات الرقمية مثل البيتكوين والأسهم الأمريكية، مما يعزز حركة التداول في وول ستريت وما بعده.

توقعات قوية من منصات الرهان

اعتباراً من الساعة ١٢ ظهراً بتوقيت شرق الولايات المتحدة، يُظهر المتعاملون على منصة Polymarket ثقة عالية جداً، حيث يقدّرون احتمالية خفض سعر الفائدة بمقدار ٢٥ نقطة أساس بنسبة ٩٨٪. بلغ حجم الرهان على هذا السيناريو حتى الآن ١٩١.٣ مليون دولار، بينما تبدو احتمالات عدم التغيير أو الخفض بمقدار ٥٠ نقطة أساس ضعيفة جداً ولا تتجاوز ١٪ لكل منهما.

الأمر نفسه ينطبق على منصة Kalshi، حيث يرى المتداولون أيضاً أن فرص الخفض بمقدار ٢٥ نقطة أساس تصل إلى ٩٨٪. يبدو أن الجميع متأكدون من قرار جيروم باول، رئيس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي، هذه المرة.

خبراء السوق يؤكدون التأثير الإيجابي

صرح الخبير الاقتصادي العالمي في كراكن، توماس برفومو، بأن تحركات سوق العملات الرقمية تتأثر بشدة بالأوضاع الاقتصادية العامة. وأشار إلى أن توقعات خفض الفائدة من قبل البنك المركزي الأمريكي تُعد أحد العوامل الرئيسية التي تحافظ على معنويات المستثمرين إيجابية، رغم التقلبات التي تشهدها الأسعار بين الحين والآخر.

وأضاف برفومو: “إن الخلفية الاقتصادية المتقلبة هي المحرك الرئيسي لدورة العملات الرقمية الحالية. ورغم فترات التذبذب، يظل الأ outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook broadly supportive Outlook 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