إلى أين تتجه البيتكوين الآن؟ لقد تغير رأي الجمهور فجأة.
محتويات المقالة
توقعات السوق تنقلب
شهدت منصة “مايرياد” لتوقعات الأسواق تحولاً مفاجئاً في الآونة الأخيرة مع استمرار انخفاض سعر البيتكوين. الآن، هناك احتمال بنسبة 57% أن تهبط البيتكوين إلى 100,000 دولار قبل أن تصل إلى 120,000 دولار. قبل ساعات قليلة فقط، كان المتنبئون يرون العكس تماماً.
عندما تنقلب توقعات الأسواق بهذه السرعة والدرجة، فإن هذا يعني أن الوقت قد حان للانتباه بجدية.
الوضع الحالي لسعر البيتكوين
يتداول سعر البيتكوين حالياً حول 108,000 دولار، بعد أن كان قد سجل مؤخراً أعلى مستوى له على الإطلاق فوق 125,000 دولار. السؤال الآن ليس عما إذا كانت البيتكوين في مرحلة انخفاض قصيرة الأجل – فذلك واضح.
السؤال الحقيقي هو: هل هذا انخفاض طبيعي بنسبة 20% لتحضير القفزة القادمة، أم بداية لمرحلة أصعب؟ لقد انخفضت البيتكوين أكثر من 10% خلال الأسبوع الماضي، لتختبر مستويات قد تحدد ما إذا كنا سنعود إلى المستوى النفسي المهم عند 100,000 دولار، أم سنستعيد منطقة 120,000 دولار المريحة.
ماذا تقول المؤشرات الفنية؟
نلقي نظرة على المؤشرات الفنية التي يعتمد عليها المتداولون لفهم الصورة الحالية:
- مؤشر القوة النسبية (RSI): يقيس زخم السوق. انخفض مؤشر البيتكوين بشدة إلى 37 نقطة، مما يشير إلى حالة بيع مفرط ولكن ليس إلى مستوى الذروة.
- مؤشر الخوف والجشع: عند 30 نقطة فقط، وهو ما يضع السوق بقوة في منطقة “الخوف”، مما يؤكد المشاعر السلبية السائدة.
- مؤشر ADX: يقيس قوة الاتجاه بغض النظر عن اتجاهه. تشير قراءته بالكاد فوق 25 إلى أن الاتجاه الهبوطي اليومي ليس قوياً بشكل ساحق على المدى الطويل، لكنه كاد يلغي الزخم الصعودي الأخير للبيتكوين.
الصورة القاتمة على المدى القصير
هذا الضعف النسبي في قوة الاتجاه مخادع، لأن النظر إلى الرسوم البيانية لفترات زمنية أقصر (4 ساعات) يروي قصة أكثر قتامة:
- ينخفض مؤشر RSI إلى 32.74.
- يقفز مؤشر ADX إلى 34.63، مما يدخل في منطقة “الاتجاه القوي”.
- تكشف الرسوم البيانية عن تشكيل “الصليب الموت” المخيف، حيث يعبر المتوسط المتحرك لـ 50 فترة أسفل المتوسط المتحرك لـ 200 فترة. هذا يؤكد ما يخشاه المتداولون: ضرر هيكل السوق الذي لن يزول بين عشية وضحاها.
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